Blackjack bust odds: how often the dealer and you bust
With 8 decks and the dealer standing on soft 17, the dealer busts most often showing a 5 or 6 (about 42% and 42%) and least often showing an ace (11.5%). If you hit a hard 12, about 31% of cards bust you; hitting 16 busts you about 62% of the time.
Dealer bust chance by up card
How the dealer's hand finishes, by the card they show, before they check for blackjack. Calculated exactly for a fresh 8-deck shoe where the dealer stands on soft 17.
| Dealer shows | Bust | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Blackjack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.4% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 11.8% | – |
| 3 | 37.4% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 11.5% | – |
| 4 | 39.5% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 11.2% | – |
| 5 | 41.8% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.8% | – |
| 6 | 42.3% | 16.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | – |
| 7 | 26.2% | 36.9% | 13.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | – |
| 8 | 24.4% | 12.9% | 36.0% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | – |
| 9 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 35.2% | 12.0% | 6.1% | – |
| 10 | 21.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 34.1% | 3.5% | 7.7% |
| Ace | 11.5% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 5.4% | 30.8% |
The weak dealer cards are 2 to 6: the dealer has to keep hitting from a stiff total and busts often. From 7 to ace the dealer usually finishes on 17 or more, which is why basic strategy stands on 12 to 16 against small cards but hits them against big ones.
Your chance of busting when you hit
The chance that the next card takes you over 21, with an 8-deck shoe where 10, J, Q and K all count as ten:
| Your total | Bust if you hit |
|---|---|
| Hard 12 | 30.8% |
| Hard 13 | 38.5% |
| Hard 14 | 46.2% |
| Hard 15 | 53.8% |
| Hard 16 | 61.5% |
| Hard 17 | 69.2% |
| Hard 18 | 76.9% |
| Hard 19 | 84.6% |
| Hard 20 | 92.3% |
Hard 11 or less can never bust with one card. Soft hands (with an ace counted as 11) can't bust either, because the ace drops to 1.
What to do with these numbers
Busting odds alone don't decide the play: you also need what happens if you don't hit. 16 against a 10 busts 62% of the time if you hit, yet hitting is still usually slightly better, because standing on 16 only wins when the dealer busts. Try any hand in the strategy calculator to see both sides.
Questions people ask
What dealer card busts the most in blackjack?
The 6 and 5. With 8 decks and the dealer standing on soft 17, a dealer showing 6 busts about 42.3% of the time and a dealer showing 5 about 41.8%.
How often does the dealer bust overall?
Roughly 28% of all hands across every up card, but it depends heavily on the card showing, from about 11% with an ace to about 42% with a 6.
What are the odds of busting on 16?
About 62% with one hit: any 6 or higher busts it. That is still often the better play against a dealer 7 or higher.
18+. Figures calculated with the Blackjack Lens odds engine for a fresh 8-deck shoe, dealer stands on soft 17. Blackjack has a house edge and nothing here guarantees winnings. Not affiliated with any casino or game provider. If gambling stops being fun, visit BeGambleAware.