Should you take insurance in blackjack?
No, not with basic strategy. Insurance pays 2:1, so it needs the dealer to have blackjack more than 1 time in 3. From a fresh 8-deck shoe the dealer has it only 30.84% of the time, so insurance loses about 7.5% of what you put on it. Card counters take it only when the true count is around +3 or higher.
How insurance works
When the dealer shows an ace, you can bet up to half your stake that the dealer has a ten underneath. If they do, insurance pays 2:1; if not, you lose the insurance bet and play on.
Why it loses money
Paying 2:1 means insurance breaks even only if the hole card is a ten more than 33.3% of the time. In a fresh 8-deck shoe, with the dealer's ace out, 30.84% of the remaining cards are tens. That gap costs you about 7.5% of every insurance bet on average.
| Situation | Dealer blackjack chance | Average result of insurance |
|---|---|---|
| Fresh 8-deck shoe | 30.84% | −€7.47 per €100 insured |
| You hold 10 + 10 | 30.58% | −€8.25 per €100 insured |
| Break-even point | 33.33% | €0 |
Holding two tens makes insurance worse, not better: your tens are no longer in the shoe for the dealer.
What about "even money"?
When you have blackjack and the dealer shows an ace, the dealer may offer even money. It's exactly the same bet as taking insurance on your blackjack, so the same maths applies: decline it unless the count is high.
When insurance is right
As tens pile up in the remaining shoe, the chance of a dealer ten rises. Card counters take insurance once the true count reaches about +3, when more than a third of the remaining cards are tens.
Questions people ask
Is insurance in blackjack ever worth it?
Only when more than one in three of the remaining cards are tens, which counters spot at a true count of about +3 or higher. From a fresh shoe it loses about 7.5% of the insurance bet.
Should I take even money with blackjack?
No, in most cases. Even money is the same as insuring your blackjack and carries the same disadvantage. Take it only when the count is high.
Why does holding tens make insurance worse?
Each ten in your hand is one fewer ten that can be the dealer's hole card, so the chance of a dealer blackjack drops.
18+. Figures calculated with the Blackjack Lens odds engine for a fresh 8-deck shoe, dealer stands on soft 17. Blackjack has a house edge and nothing here guarantees winnings. Not affiliated with any casino or game provider. If gambling stops being fun, visit BeGambleAware.